Économie
ECB: why keep rates up when inflation is falling?
The European Central Bank extends its pause in key interest rates, despite tame inflation. We decipher the strategic stakes and risks for traders.
ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Économie
Economy: Fed, ECB, inflation and macro decoded
Macroeconomics is the main engine driving all financial markets: forex, equities, bonds, commodities and crypto. Understanding central bank decisions (Fed in the US, ECB in Europe, BoJ in Japan, BoE in the UK) and major data releases (CPI inflation, NFP jobs, GDP, PMI) is essential to anticipate trends and size exposure correctly.
Since 2022, the global monetary cycle has been dominated by fighting post-Covid and post-Ukraine war inflation: rapid hikes in 2022-2023 (Fed at 5.5%, ECB at 4%), then an easing cycle starting 2024-2025 as disinflation consolidated. 2026 shapes up as a pivotal year for central bank responses to economic slowdown and a new wave of US tariffs.
ActuTrading Economy covers monetary policy decisions (FOMC, ECB Governing Council), US and European macro releases (NFP, CPI, PCE, Ifo, PMI, ZEW), sovereign debt issues, and geopolitical impact on global trade balances.
Deep dives in this section
France inflation
CPI, INSEE, purchasing power, ECB impact: French inflation decoded.
Read →Fed decisions
FOMC, dot plot, Fed funds rate, Powell guidance and market effects.
Read →ECB decisions
Deposit rate, Lagarde, 2% inflation target, sovereign stress.
Read →Bank of Japan (BoJ)
25 years of dovish policy, NIRP exit, Kazuo Ueda and the yen.
Read →Bank of England (BoE)
9-member MPC, Andrew Bailey, vote transparency, sterling pound.
Read →Swiss National Bank (SNB)
Frankenshock January 15, 2015, CHF safe-haven, Martin Schlegel.
Read →Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
Michele Bullock, AUD commodity currency, China dependence.
Read →Latest economy: fed, ecb, inflation and macro decoded news
62 articles
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fed exactly?+
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the US central bank, in charge of monetary policy (rates, balance sheet) and banking supervision. Its decisions are made by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) at 8 meetings per year. Its dual mandate: price stability (~2% inflation) and full employment.
How does the ECB influence European rates?+
The ECB sets the deposit rate (at which European banks can deposit excess reserves), which anchors all market rate chains: Euribor, sovereign rates (OAT for France, Bund for Germany), mortgage rates, corporate credit. It meets 8 times a year in Frankfurt.
How to read the US CPI?+
CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures US inflation. Two figures to watch: headline CPI (all components, includes energy and food) and core CPI (excluding energy/food, more stable). Compare vs consensus: if core CPI > consensus, market prices hawkish Fed, dollar up, stocks down.
What's NFP and why does it matter?+
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) is the monthly US jobs report released the first Friday of each month. Three figures: jobs created (vs consensus), unemployment rate, hourly wages. It's the most market-moving macro release: EUR/USD can move 50-100 pips within a minute of release.
How do you know if we're in a recession?+
Academic definition: 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Official US definition: the NBER declares recessions retrospectively combining employment, industrial production, retail sales, real income. Leading indicators to watch: yield curve inversion (10y - 2y), PMI < 50, rising unemployment.