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ActuTrading
Économie

Economy: Fed, ECB, inflation and macro decoded

Macroeconomics is the main engine driving all financial markets: forex, equities, bonds, commodities and crypto. Understanding central bank decisions (Fed in the US, ECB in Europe, BoJ in Japan, BoE in the UK) and major data releases (CPI inflation, NFP jobs, GDP, PMI) is essential to anticipate trends and size exposure correctly.

Since 2022, the global monetary cycle has been dominated by fighting post-Covid and post-Ukraine war inflation: rapid hikes in 2022-2023 (Fed at 5.5%, ECB at 4%), then an easing cycle starting 2024-2025 as disinflation consolidated. 2026 shapes up as a pivotal year for central bank responses to economic slowdown and a new wave of US tariffs.

ActuTrading Economy covers monetary policy decisions (FOMC, ECB Governing Council), US and European macro releases (NFP, CPI, PCE, Ifo, PMI, ZEW), sovereign debt issues, and geopolitical impact on global trade balances.

Deep dives in this section

Latest economy: fed, ecb, inflation and macro decoded news

68 articles
Eurozone households are betting on a decline in inflation
Économie

Eurozone households are betting on a decline in inflation

The ECB survey shows that eurozone consumers now expect lower inflation in 2027. This marks a major psychological turning point for the euro and interest rates.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Tokyo Inflation Accelerates in June, Reigniting the BoJ Debate
Économie

Tokyo Inflation Accelerates in June, Reigniting the BoJ Debate

Inflation in Tokyo rose in June, driven by energy prices. This acceleration is fueling renewed speculation about monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Gold Falls to a 7-Month Low Against the Dollar, Boosted by the Fed
Économie

Gold Falls to a 7-Month Low Against the Dollar, Boosted by the Fed

Gold hits its lowest level since November 2025 following the Fed's hawkish signals. The dollar is taking advantage of this to dominate the foreign exchange market.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Inflation in Japan remains under control thanks to subsidies
Économie

Inflation in Japan remains under control thanks to subsidies

Official figures for May show that inflation in Japan is under control, but energy subsidies mask very real underlying pressure.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Citigroup Rules Out Fed Rate Cuts and Targets September 2026
Économie

Citigroup Rules Out Fed Rate Cuts and Targets September 2026

The New York-based bank is revising its strategy in response to the Federal Reserve's tightening. The markets will have to wait until the fall of 2026 to see rates fall.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
According to Simkus, the ECB is preparing for at least one rate hike
Économie

According to Simkus, the ECB is preparing for at least one rate hike

Gediminas Simkus, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, announced that at least one more rate hike is on the way. Monetary tightening continues.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
U.S. inflation tops 4%, putting pressure on Bitcoin and gold
Économie

U.S. inflation tops 4%, putting pressure on Bitcoin and gold

U.S. inflation has surpassed the 4% mark, and analysts predict increasing pressure on Bitcoin and gold. Nervous markets are anticipating a response from the Fed.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Gold falls as the Fed stands firm on interest rates
Économie

Gold falls as the Fed stands firm on interest rates

Gold has fallen 4% in 24 hours and dropped below $4,150 an ounce. The reason: the Fed’s continued restrictive monetary policy, which is weighing heavily on precious metals.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
The RBNZ Faces the Inflation-Employment Dilemma in New Zealand
Économie

The RBNZ Faces the Inflation-Employment Dilemma in New Zealand

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is continuing its fight against inflation despite a worrying rise in unemployment. It’s an increasingly delicate balance.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
The dollar climbs to a two-month high as the Fed lies in wait
Économie

The dollar climbs to a two-month high as the Fed lies in wait

The dollar has reached its highest level since early April. Markets are now betting that the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
British companies expect a sharp slowdown in inflation
Économie

British companies expect a sharp slowdown in inflation

The Bank of England's latest survey shows that British businesses expect prices to rise at a much slower pace than in April. This is an important signal for future monetary policy.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Gold falls against the dollar despite the crisis between the United States and Iran
Économie

Gold falls against the dollar despite the crisis between the United States and Iran

Gold is losing ground against a dollar bolstered by expectations of a hawkish Fed. The Iran-U.S. crisis is no longer enough to prop up the price of gold.

Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois

Frequently asked questions

What is the Fed exactly?+
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the US central bank, in charge of monetary policy (rates, balance sheet) and banking supervision. Its decisions are made by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) at 8 meetings per year. Its dual mandate: price stability (~2% inflation) and full employment.
How does the ECB influence European rates?+
The ECB sets the deposit rate (at which European banks can deposit excess reserves), which anchors all market rate chains: Euribor, sovereign rates (OAT for France, Bund for Germany), mortgage rates, corporate credit. It meets 8 times a year in Frankfurt.
How to read the US CPI?+
CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures US inflation. Two figures to watch: headline CPI (all components, includes energy and food) and core CPI (excluding energy/food, more stable). Compare vs consensus: if core CPI > consensus, market prices hawkish Fed, dollar up, stocks down.
What's NFP and why does it matter?+
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) is the monthly US jobs report released the first Friday of each month. Three figures: jobs created (vs consensus), unemployment rate, hourly wages. It's the most market-moving macro release: EUR/USD can move 50-100 pips within a minute of release.
How do you know if we're in a recession?+
Academic definition: 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Official US definition: the NBER declares recessions retrospectively combining employment, industrial production, retail sales, real income. Leading indicators to watch: yield curve inversion (10y - 2y), PMI < 50, rising unemployment.