Oil is the world's most-traded commodity (~100 million barrels/day consumed). Two global benchmarks: Brent (Europe, North Sea) and WTI (USA, West Texas Intermediate). Prices pulled between global economic cycle (demand) and OPEC+ decisions (supply), with geopolitical tensions adding volatility.
Brent is the European and global reference crude. Extracted from the North Sea (UK, Norway), heavier and more sulfurous than WTI. It benchmarks about 2/3 of global oil (Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia). Listed on ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) in London.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the American crude, lighter and sweeter, easier to refine into gasoline. Listed on NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange). Used as benchmark mainly in the US market.
Brent-WTI spread: historically, Brent trades with a $2-5 premium over WTI (more expensive to transport, global demand). The spread can widen to $10-15 during region-specific crises (e.g., Middle East conflict → Brent premium spikes).
In April 2026, Brent trades around $80-90/barrel, WTI around $76-86/barrel. Significant volatility since 2020: trough of -$37 (!) in April 2020 (Covid + saturated storage) then peak at $130 mid-2022 (Ukraine invasion), before stabilizing around $70-90 in 2024-2026.
Supply side (OPEC+ and non-OPEC): - OPEC+ meetings (Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Venezuela + allies) every 4-8 weeks. Production quota decisions = major market-moving event. A surprise cut of 500k to 2M barrels/day can move the barrel $3-7 within minutes. - US shale: US production fluctuates with prices (becomes profitable > $50-55/barrel on average). Baker Hughes weekly rig count data is watched. - Sanctions: Russia, Iran, Venezuela. EU/US decisions impact global supply.
Demand side: - Global economic growth: Chinese manufacturing PMI, US ISM, IEA data. Recession → -1-3 Mb/d demand. - Energy transition: electric vehicles (Chinese market share > 50 % in 2026), gradual gasoline demand decline in developed countries. - Air travel: kerosene demand sensitive to economic activity.
Inventories: - DOE (Department of Energy) inventories published every Wednesday at 16:30 CET. Change in US commercial inventories = crucial short-term indicator. Larger-than-expected drawdown = bullish oil signal. - API inventories published day before (Tuesday 22:30), DOE precursor.
Geopolitics: Middle East (Iran, Israel, Strait of Hormuz through which 20 % of world oil transits), Russia, naval incidents. Can add $5 to $20 in a few days.
Physical oil isn't accessible to retail investors. 5 indirect vehicles:
Recommendation: for most investors, TotalEnergies on PEA is the best accessible oil exposure (generous dividend, PEA-eligible, French governance).
Crude oil has risen for three consecutive sessions following Donald Trump's threats against Iran. The market is anticipating supply tensions.
Crude oil prices soared 7% after Donald Trump threatened massive strikes against Iran, targeting in particular the island of Kharg, a crucial oil terminal. Markets are on high alert.
Tehran is once again exploring the sale of crude oil to Japan. Buyers are demanding extended guarantees in light of the risk of sanctions. This return to the market could reshuffle the deck.
Baghdad has officially asked OPEC to recalculate its production quotas. This move could undermine the already fragile balance within the oil alliance.
WTI crude oil was trading at $69.23 on Friday evening, wrapping up a volatile week marked by geopolitical tensions and mixed signals from OPEC.
Gas prices in the United States continue to fall for the sixth consecutive week. This trend is weighing on oil prices and reshaping the energy outlook.
The cancellation of U.S.-Iran negotiations is driving up crude oil prices. European bond yields are rising as a result.
Oil prices are falling sharply while European stocks are rising on hopes of a deal between Washington and Tehran. This marks a major turnaround for commodities.
Tehran announces the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. strikes. Oil prices jump by $2. The geopolitical shock everyone feared.
Despite tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and price volatility, OPEC is maintaining its global demand forecast. This sends a strong signal to the oil market.
Hostilities are escalating in Iran. Oil prices are rising as negotiations stall and military tensions reach a new peak.
An Israeli strike hit a café in the port of Gaza, killing at least two people. The escalation continues in the Gaza Strip.
The American giant Chevron has filed an official bid to acquire an offshore oil block in Greece. This strategic move in the eastern Mediterranean is reshaping the European energy landscape.
The London index is rising as hopes for a deal with Iran offset tensions over crude oil. The market is betting on a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions.
The United Arab Emirates has withdrawn from OPEC without warning. This is a major blow to Saudi Arabia and a diplomatic triumph for Washington, which is reshuffling the global oil deck.
The U.S. president says the ceasefire with Iran is on life support. European stock markets are expected to open sharply lower on Tuesday.
Oil prices have surpassed $110, while Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.6% following OpenAI's struggles to attract new users and meet its sales targets.
The United Arab Emirates has left OPEC without notice, citing national interests. This is a major blow to Riyadh and a major diplomatic victory for Washington.
The Iranian currency has hit a new all-time low of 1.81 million rials to the dollar, a victim of U.S. military strikes and the naval blockade that are choking the economy.
Bitcoin is down 2.1% and Ethereum 3.4%, while Brent crude has surged 7.1% to $126 a barrel. Cryptocurrencies are taking a hit amid geopolitical tensions.