The world's most powerful central bank. Its monetary policy decisions drive every market: forex, stocks, bonds, crypto, commodities. Real-time analysis of every FOMC meeting, dot plot and Powell speech.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States, created in 1913. Its dual mandate: price stability (2% inflation target) and full employment. It's fully independent from the US government in its monetary policy decisions.
Rate decisions are made by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), composed of 12 voting members: 7 Fed governors (including Chair Jerome Powell since 2018) + 5 regional Fed presidents. The FOMC meets 8 times per year.
Each meeting produces: (1) a Fed Funds rate decision (target range), (2) a statement, (3) a Powell press conference, (4) quarterly "dot plot" (members' rate projections). All four are market-moving.
When the Fed hikes rates: dollar up (more rewarding), stocks down (valuation multiple compression), existing bonds down (discounted vs new higher-yield ones), gold and crypto down (non-yielding assets disadvantaged).
When the Fed cuts rates: exact opposite. Classic "risk on" scenario.
In 2022-2023, the Fed hiked 525 bps in 16 months (most aggressive since Volcker in the 80s) to break post-Covid inflation. Result: S&P 500 -19% in 2022, dollar +10%, Bitcoin -65%. In 2024-2025, the Fed reversed to easing with 3 cumulative cuts of 100 bps — markets rallied.
2026 is a pivotal year: does the easing cycle continue, or does the Fed restart hikes against inflation rebounding with Trump tariffs? Every meeting counts.
4 items to check in order for every meeting:
Pro tip: wait 30 minutes after the conference before trading. Initial volatility can go either way, then the market digests and sets a clear direction.
The euro-dollar exchange rate has fallen back to 1.1437 after giving up its NFP gains. The market is holding its breath ahead of this week's U.S. inflation report.
The Fed's new chair warns: zero tolerance for inflation above 2%. A clear signal to the markets, which had been anticipating easing.
Disappointing U.S. employment data is causing the dollar to fall and pushing back the prospect of another Fed rate hike. The EUR/USD is benefiting from this.
UBS expects the Fed to hold rates steady despite market expectations of a rate hike. Kevin Warsh downplays the inflation risk, but traders remain hesitant.
Bitcoin is holding steady above $60,000 as ETFs see massive outflows and expectations regarding the Fed weigh on market sentiment.
Gold hits its lowest level since November 2025 following the Fed's hawkish signals. The dollar is taking advantage of this to dominate the foreign exchange market.
The yellow metal is losing ground under pressure from a dollar bolstered by expectations of monetary tightening by the Fed.
The New York-based bank is revising its strategy in response to the Federal Reserve's tightening. The markets will have to wait until the fall of 2026 to see rates fall.
The dollar is climbing to its highest level in two months as expectations of a Fed rate hike grow. The Japanese yen is taking a hit.
The dollar has paused its rally following the announcement of a major peace agreement. The yen remains stable following the BoJ's rate hike.
U.S. inflation has surpassed the 4% mark, and analysts predict increasing pressure on Bitcoin and gold. Nervous markets are anticipating a response from the Fed.
Gold has fallen 4% in 24 hours and dropped below $4,150 an ounce. The reason: the Fed’s continued restrictive monetary policy, which is weighing heavily on precious metals.
The dollar has reached its highest level since early April. Markets are now betting that the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates.
Gold is losing ground against a dollar bolstered by expectations of a hawkish Fed. The Iran-U.S. crisis is no longer enough to prop up the price of gold.
The dollar remains strong against the yen despite Governor Ueda's hawkish comments. The USD/JPY pair is holding steady at 159.93 as an imminent rate hike looms.
Faced with persistent inflation, investors are betting heavily on a sharp rise in the U.S. dollar. The Fed remains firm on its monetary policy.
Kevin Warsh takes the helm at the Fed amid a volatile situation: war with Iran, a FOMC that refuses to cut rates, and markets in panic mode. Not exactly the ideal start.
Traders are once again betting on interest rate differentials between currencies. The carry trade is making a strong comeback, completely reshaping forex flows.
Hope Bancorp has just broken above its 200-day moving average. This is a technical signal that is often overinterpreted by traders and can hide a trap.
BTC is testing the $76,500 level following a rapid rally. Several technical and macroeconomic indicators suggest we may be facing a classic bull trap.